Kalshi traders see greater than 50% odds the Fed will hike rates this year

• A volatile week left certain stocks looking technically overbought or oversold, drawing attention from traders.
• Roth Capital said nuclear energy stocks may gain from AI-driven power demand and rising electricity needs.
• SpaceX buyers who entered after the IPO are already near underwater after the recent two-day decline.
• Kalshi traders are assigning more than 50% odds that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year.
• A research firm sees SpaceX shares more than doubling, potentially climbing above $400.
• Analysts say Nvidia could regain momentum in the AI trade as the market shifts back in its favor.
• Jay Woods highlighted a car stock with charts that look attractive after months of range-bound trading.
• Josh Brown pointed to a tech stock tied closely to the data-center buildout as a notable opportunity.
• Investors were told that BDCs are in a very strong position, while another segment focused on ETF basics and bond-market signals.
• Key market stories include Micron earnings, Amazon Prime Day, bank stress tests, gold forecast cuts, Iran-related headlines, and advances in AI, quantum, and semiconductor infrastructure.

Hong Kong stocks fell sharply as the Hang Seng Index dropped 387 points, with Tencent repurchasing about HK$500 million of shares and the market also reacting to HKEX’s launch of new derivatives-related payment and 5-year bond futures initiatives.

• Tencent repurchased about 1.144 million shares for roughly HK$500 million, signaling continued support for its stock.
• The Hong Kong stock market closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index falling 387 points as Meituan dropped and Zhispai surged above HK$2,000.
• Hong Kong’s citywide rental yield fell to 3.24% in April, ending the “mortgage cheaper than rent” situation after eight straight months of decline.
• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, together with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, launched pilot initiatives, including digital payment solutions for after-hours derivatives trading.
• The five-year government bond futures product is scheduled to debut on August 3, expanding Hong Kong’s fixed-income derivatives market.
• China’s central and financial regulators unveiled major reform measures at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, including broader support for tech firms, AI companies, and market infrastructure upgrades.
• China’s securities regulator plans to expand the STAR Market’s fifth listing standard to AI model companies and support more “hard-tech” firms such as quantum and bio-manufacturing businesses.
• The People’s Bank of China announced six policy measures to improve modern financial market development, including better short-term interest-rate management and new liquidity tools.
• Global and regional central banks mostly held policy rates steady, including Taiwan and Switzerland, while markets watched the Bank of England and U.S. inflation expectations.
• Several Hong Kong-listed companies issued earnings warnings, buybacks, or business updates, reflecting a mixed corporate backdrop amid volatile markets.

Tokyo stocks hit a record high for the second straight day, driven by US market gains and lower oil prices.

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been discharged from the hospital after treatment for an infectious disease and is set to return to official duties on the 23rd, but he will miss the monetary policy meeting where a rate hike was decided.
• The Tokyo stock market closed up 196 yen, extending record highs for a second straight day, supported by stronger U.S. stocks and lower U.S. crude futures.
• Tokyo stocks briefly hit a new all-time high during trading as rising U.S. shares and hopes that tensions in the Middle East will ease lifted sentiment.
• Finance Minister Katayama warned against speculative trading and signaled a strong stance to discourage further yen weakness.
• Japan’s consumer prices in May rose 1.4%, staying below 2% for the fourth month in a row, with government gasoline subsidies helping to hold down prices.
• The yen temporarily fell to 161.81 per dollar, approaching a level not seen in about 39 and a half years, as expectations of U.S. interest-rate hikes boosted the dollar.
• New York stocks rebounded by 72 dollars, with easing inflation fears helped by falling oil prices.
• NY crude oil prices fell back, ending in the $76 range on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz situation could normalize.
• Banks are aggressively raising deposit rates, intensifying competition to attract savings, though regional banks are worried about growing fatigue and pressure on profitability.
• Japan’s university sector is entering a survival race as enrollment shortages spread, and private universities are stepping up efforts to survive in an era of universal college access.

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as a broad risk-off move and leverage-driven selling intensified across crypto markets.

• Schwab is reportedly preparing to enter prediction markets with S&P 500 event-based options.
• GoMining is introducing a bitcoin-centered payments platform to compete with Jack Dorsey’s Square.
• Franklin Templeton has proposed ETFs that would convert corporate dividends into bitcoin exposure.
• Bitcoin weakness is weighing on smart-contract and DeFi coins, which are leading market losses.
• The digital credit market suffered a major selloff, with Strive’s CEO blaming leverage liquidations.
• Microsoft detected malware that steals crypto wallets and can spread through USB drives.
• XRP dropped after failing to hold $1.15 support and losing momentum on a breakout attempt.
• Bitcoin remains under pressure as traders bet more heavily on further downside and price falls below $63,000.
• Regulatory and policy risks are rising, including the Senate CLARITY Act’s delays and a proposed Illinois crypto transfer tax.
• Across major crypto narratives, Cardano, Ethereum, Ripple, and XRP all face mixed fundamentals, whale activity, and investor backlash.

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